The mess called Indian democracy

Horse trading will begin in full fervor on May 16. That is only a couple of days away. So what ails Indian democracy? What needs to be done to strengthen it?

Here are a few problems and suggestions for the CEC:

• Encourage participation of voters: Voters are keeping away to exhibit their disgust and/or apathy towards Indian democracy. By all means, this is a terrible thing for the nation. This has to change. Making voting compulsory will not help. Democracy needs to be strengthened at the grass root level. Edicts and mandates to vote do to a democracy make. Sowing seeds of democracy at the grassroot levels will be needed. So how do you do that? A few simple ideas:
  
• Make people aware of issues India faces. Too many Indians think the world starts and ends with India. Jingoistic patriotism gets in the way of objective criticism. This has to change. It has to happen in classrooms around the country. Projects at school level should focus on challenges India faces (there are many and need not be listed here). Aware citizens are caring citizens.
  
• Get citizens involved with democracy. Media is so in your face these days that people develop apathy quickly. Sensationalism replaces performance. Create alliances in the media that help track performance of governments objectively. Create performance trackers for each MP and each union minister. Put pressure on them to perform. Make a game out of it. Media can play a big role here.
  
• Development can be sexy and cool. In fact, it should be. Development oriented leaders should be the superstars, because unlike Bollywood stars, they do not just show dreams on a silver screen, they can actually make those dreams come true. Media again has a role to play.
  
• Parents and teachers have a role to play as well. Passion for democracy is passion for development. Such passion and enthusiasm has to be infused at a young age. Business alone is not enought for a nation's growth. Sound social policies are more important. India is a nation of excesses that remains poor due to lack of public involvement in social policies. Politicians take us for a ride because we don't care and let them. This has to change. For this, education of one's rights is key.

More ideas to follow.

Rahul Gandhi: NDA Finished: Perfect Prophecy or Famous Last Words?

Rahul brings to attention the fact that NDA does not exist in several states. The condition of the UPA is not very different. They have no pre-poll alliances in even states like UP and Bihar. Where is UPA in these states?

Our take is that in order to strengthen Indian democracy, the CEC should usher in the following changes:

• Pre-poll alliances should be encouraged. The way to do that is to make a constitutional amendment that the party with the pre-poll alliance (not single largest party) that will have the highest number of votes should be invited to form the government.
• Such an alliance will be required to choose their PM candidate at least one month before the first phase of polling. The alliance that projects a PM candidate within the stipulated timeframe will be considered ahead of the alliance that does not when the President decides who to invite to form the government.

Mallika Sarabhai: Are some people born this way?

Check this video of Mallika Sarabhai. Some may think she is arrogant and stupid. Others may find her confident. What is your take? Can she connect with the common man? Can she take on someone with experience serving the people for years that equal her age?

Arun Jaitley on BJP's chances

See what Mr. Jaitley's thinks of BJP's chances in these elections. He takes on english media for raking the Modi issue consistently.

Navjot Sidhu: What a shot!

Navjot Sidhu of BJP is a master of the spoken word. Check out his videos:

Northwest Delhi: Straight Fight: But where are the contestants?

Watch the straight fight in Rohini, Northwest Delhi.

Typical issues being discussed:

• Terrorism (Kandahar versus Afzal Guru)
• Ram Mandir
• Religious Discrimination

What about development?
Also, where are the contestants? The crowd gets rowdy.

Individual High Profile Candidates

Here are victory predictions of individual high profile candidates (victory margin in brackets):

• Varun Gandhi - Pilibhit (100,000-150,000)
• Sonia Gandhi - Rae Bareilly (350,000-400,000)
• Rahul Gandhi - Amethi (300,000)
• Sumitra Mahajan - Indore (30,000-60,000)
• Kireet Somaiyya - Northeast Mumbai (50,000)
• Supriya Sule (Pawar) - Baramati (300,000+)
• LK Advani - Gandhinagar (200,000)
• Sharad Pawar - Madha (250,000)
• Jyotiraditya Scindia (200,000-250,000)

Close contests (Predicted winners):

• Lalji Tandon - Lucknow (15,000)
• Anil Shirole - Pune (12,000-20,000)
• Ram Naik - North Mumbai (25,000)
• Shatrughan Sinha - Patnasahib (30,000)

Prominent Losers (Predicted):

• Jayaprada - Rampur
• Shekhar Suman - Patnasahib
• George Fernandes - Muzaffarpur
• Kamal Nath - Chhindwara
• Suresh Kalmadi - Pune

Who will form the next government in India? Which party will come to power?

Who will form the next government is the million dollar question. There are only 17 more days for the results of the polls to come out. After that, the horse trading will begin. Here are our predictions:

• NDA will emerge as the single largest party.
• BJP will not get a majority, so they will not be able to stake a claim to form the government.
• NDA will, by itself, not be able to gain simple majority either.
• Neither will the UPA.
• Regional parties will play a big role in forming the next government.
• The mandate will be clearly against the Congress party. The anti-incumbency factor will be the biggest determinant. Mandate against non-performance by Congress party will be clear.
• Regional parties will ride the anti-incumbency wave and support the NDA.
• Anti-Congress-DMK wave will sweep Tamil Nadu due to the way the LTTE issue has been handled. Jayalalitha will have crucial numbers to bring majority to the AIADMK party in Tamil Nadu.
• BJP will sweep MP, Gujarat and Himachal.
• BJP-SS will have unprecedented gains in Maharashtra. See earlier post in this blog.
• BJP-SS will come to power in Maharashtra later in the year.
• BJP will have unprecedented gains in Punjab, Rajasthan, Orissa and Delhi.
• UP will produce a fractured mandate. SP will face major losses in UP from last elections. Amar Singh and Kalyan Singh will be shown the door unceremoniously. BJP and Ajit Singh's RLD will experience major gains.
• Andhra Pradesh will also have a fractured mandate. Congress will have setbacks in AP.
• The left will suffer setbacks in West Bengal and Kerala. Congress will make inroads in these states for the first time.
• Bihar will face a huge anti-Laloo wave. JD(U) and BJP will experience major gains.
• LK Advani will become PM of India.
• Jayalalitha will become Deputy PM.

Sonia Gandhi exposed; UPA not coming to power again

Two recent headlines have made it clear that UPA is on its way out. They clearly signal a sign of desperation from Sonia Gandhi:

• Quattrocchi was given a clean chit by the CBI. Sonia Gandhi clearly wants all the dirt to go away before she is done.
• Supreme Court has asked a Special Investigation Team (SIT) to probe Narendra Modi's role in the 2002 Gujarat riots.

These two recent events show that:

1. UPA government is getting desperate to make some last breath moves to hang on to power.
2. In case they are not so lucky, which by all indications seems correct, then at least some of the cases against the Gandhi family (Bofors) will go away.

This is a no win situation for the Congress. It is clear that they have nowhere to go from here but down.

While all this happens, the stupid pseudo-secular media continues to put its spin on the happenings.

Bhopal: BJP vs. Congress: Straight Fight

Kailash Joshi of BJP takes on Surendra Singh Thakur of Congress. The public keeps getting in the way. Check out the Bhopal debate:

Indore Contest: Debate

Sumitra Mahajan makes sense. बेटा भगोड़ा हैं। यह क्या हो रहा हैं?

Check it out:

South Mumbai: Interesting contest

Mohan Rawale of Shiv Sena, Milind Deora Congress and Meera Sanyal (independent) make an interesting contest. Meera Sanyal will take away votes from Milind Deora. Nice three way fight.

Noida contest: Who will be PM?

Narendra Bhati of SP and Jogendra Awana of Congress are at loggerheads with the PM issue. Manmohan Singh or Mulayam Singh? Who will be PM? Mahesh Sharma of BJP joins the fray. Don't you think India deserves better leaders?

Mumbai: Vikroli contest

Kireet Somaiyya again for the BJP vs. Sachin Ahir of NCP. Nagma of Congress comes to Adik's rescue.

Amar Singh falls again

This great SP leader is going through some rough times. His idiotic ways seem to have finally caught up with him. You can fool one person at all times, you can fool all people one time, but you cannot fool all people at all times. How long before Mulayam shows him the door?

Thane contest: NCP, BJP or Independent?

Who do you think is the most compelling candidate?

NCP is accused of being most opportunistic.

Mumbai Mahalaxmi Contest

Check out the following contest in Mahalaxmi, Mumbai. Great discussion on education of contestants and candidates with criminal background in elections:

TV Advertising by parties: Which ones do you find most compelling?

Tell us which ones do you find compelling:

BJP:





Congress:








NCP:








Shiv Sena:

Indore: You must be kidding

Check out the Indore candidates. What a contrast: Sumitra Mahajan of BJP and Satyanarayan Patel of Congress. Indore has an easy choice. Who nominated this fool called Satyanarayan Patel? Congress caught napping in Indore.

Northeast Mumbai: What is your take?

Kireet Sommaiyya of BJP takes on Sanjay Patil of NCP. Sommaiyya stands for development. Patil talks about love of people and NCP and social service, development. Sommaiyya seems like the more accomplished candidate. What do you think?

Amar Singh attacks Sharad Pawar

How can Sharad Pawar become PM with 12 Lok Sabha seats? Amar Singh alleges Pawar has helped SP in Maharashtra despite having an alliance with Congress. Can Pawar be trusted?

What is Jaya amma upto?

Jayalalithaa, the CM of TN, has created a grand alliance with Left, PMK and MDMK. This is a very interesting development for the following reasons:

• Jaya had declared publicly a few days ago that she is not interested in the PM position.
• Jaya was part of the NDA during the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government and was a solid partner.
• She commands respect in Tamil Nadu. We had projected that she, along with her allies, would pick 16 of the 39 seats in play. We had alloted these seats to the NDA. If she does not align with the NDA, NDA's seat count will go down significantly.
• This was a huge opportunity for the NDA to make an impact in TN. The Congress and the DMK are at loggerheads with respect to the LTTE issue. DMK has a soft corner for LTTE, which is a Tamil organization. Congress are not fond of the LTTE because they were involved with Rajiv Gandhi's assassination. Looks like that opportunity for the NDA to make inroads into this southern state have passed by.

Jaya says she is not interested in becoming PM:



Jaya aligns with several parties:

Quadrangular fight in Lucknow

Lucknow, where Atal Bihari Vajpayee was elected by huge margin with huge margins, is in the play this time. A multi corner fight is on in this northern, cultured, capital city of Uttar Pradesh. The contestants are Lalji Tandon of BJP, Akhilesh Das of BSP, Nafisa Ali of SP and Rita Bahuguna Joshi of Congress. This is going to be an interesting and tough fight. The Muslim votes will be split between Congress and SP. Backward class votes will go to Behenji's BSP. Lalji Tandon is most likely to win this seat.

Watch the contestants slug it out:

When will the English media wake up?

To the common man, there is nothing more clear than the bias of the pseudo-secular English media in India. These Macaulay's children will never open their eyes to the beauty of India. Even as the Taliban takes over Pakistan and gain control over city after city, the Indian English media refuses to cover this aspect of terrorism even as the Taliban come knocking on India's door. Somehow, accepting this radical form of Islam as reality seems to work against their favored agenda of supporting the Congress. The noise of the pseudo secular English media in India is drowning out any voices trying to bring attention to an issue that threatens national security of India. This is a disaster waiting to happen. And the Indian pseudo secular media is focused on petty two-bit lowly politics of projecting parties as communal.

Northwest Mumbai contestants slug it out

Abu Azmi, who has declared a net worth of 127 crores, is contesting on a SP ticket from Northwest Mumbai. His USP is votebank of North Indians and Muslims in his area. Gurudas Kamat is contesting on a Congress ticket while Gajanan Keertikar is contesting on a Shiv Sena ticket. Watch them slug it out:

Varun Gandhi comes clean

Varun Gandhi comes clean with his diatribe. He explains his position in chaste Hindi. Interesting!

Dharavi Debate

The videos below show the debate between contestant Manohar Joshi of Shiv Sena and incumbent MP Eknath Gaikwad's daughter Varsha, who is an MLA from Dharavi. What we love about this video is the fact that people from the largest slum in Asia, Dharavi, are passionately asking the candidates about development of Dharavi. This augurs well for India.

North Mumbai: Ram Naik, Sanjay Nirupam

Check out this debate for Mumbai North. Sanjay Nirupam seems angry. Ram Naik is old but cool and assertive. The BSP candidate is inconspicuous. Congress seems to be taking a beating:

Mumbai Lok Sabha Contest: Manohar Joshi, Kripashankar Singh, Shaina NC

Mumbai Lok Sabha debate: Looks like Congress-NCP is taking a serious beating in the Mumbai debates in Kahiye Netaji. Check it out:

Pune Lok Sabha Contest: Kahiye Netaji: Nice effort

Kahiye Netaji is a nice effort. It is a moderated debate and a first attempt towards the presidential debate. This is the only time you will see all the Pune candidates speak to the media. All candidates did poorly. I think DSK did better than the others. Tell us what you think!

Arjun Singh humiliated in Sidhi

A Senior Congress leader and an elder statesmen like Arjun Singh, who is an HRD minister in the Union Cabinet and has served the Congress party faithfully since 1957, has been humiliated by his own party. He has been forced to campaign against his own daughter Veena Singh in Sidhi, which has been his stomping ground. It is difficult not to feel for this Congress soldier and father. Someone like Rahul, who has no locus standii other than being son of a Gandhi, gets a nice ride and is a potential PM candidate. What is Veena's fault, other than the fact that she is not a Gandhi? Best wishes to Veena Singh. Least the party could have done is not forced him to campaign against his own daughter.

Narendra Modi on Sharad Pawar: Classic videos

Watch the googlies Narendra Modi bowls to Sharad Pawar. Class videos:

Why BJP?

Watch these 3 videos to see what BJP has to offer: Progress, Prosperity and Security:

Lok Satta: Dr. Jayaprakash Narayan makes sense

His message is that we need to play a role in polity and take ownership to get our rights. One cannot argue with that:

Supriya Sule: Pawar's daughter on camera

Supriya Sule does an impressive job of representing herself. Good to see the next generation Pawar being so capable. I hope she does some good for the people and uses her political and business acumen to good use for the people she will represent. Pawars have accumulated a lot of wealth. Supriya Sule is worth some 52.7 crores. I am hoping some of it will be used for the betterment of their constituents.

Mumbai Votes: Youth's choice

Its good to see the youth taking ownership of their vote and casting based on scrutiny of candidates' background, abilities and poll promises. This will definitely bring accountability to the process. I hope these youth are also able to see through the agenda of the biased media such as NDTV and do not fall prey to their agenda. The video below shows a good glimpse into how the youth of Mumbai are making a difference in how a politician comes to power.

Lalu gets lost in the air and tones down his funnies

Lalu's helicopter gets lost in the air. Lalu is changing and cutting down his jokes. His coterie has deserted him and needs new friends. Anyone interested in signing up?

National Predictions

Our predictions, based on simulations, have yielded the following results. We will continue to run these simulations till election day:


The numbers our models came up with are very different than the NDTV poll numbers due to several factors:

• The alliances in many states are still evolving or will evolve after the elections
• Jaya from TN will align with the BJP sooner than later
• TDP and Chiru's party in AP together will create a small ruffle in AP, of which Chiru's PRP will gain 10 seats and TDP will gain only about 3 seats.
• In UP, the mess will continue and the third front will continue to gain steam. BSP is also in this third front bucket.
• Mayawati will play kingmaker this time. She will have a large contingent of seats.
• Despite having less seats in their kitty, NDA will be joined by Mayawati to keep out Congress out of power.
• LK Advani will be the next PM of India (42% chance).

We will continue to refine our simulation models as time goes, so watch this space.

Shekhar Suman challenges Raj Thackeray

Shekhar Suman "invites" Raj Thackeray to Patna:

Laloo wants to crush Varun Gandhi

Vote bank politics at its best: Watch this video for Laloo's speech about Varun Gandhi:

Nitish Kumar masterful interview

Watch this interview of Mr. Nitish Kumar, CM of Bihar. See how he keeps Barkha Dutt from NDTV at bay and keeps his cool and control of the interview till the end. Brilliant. Simply Brilliant! India needs more politicians like this dynamic leader.

NDTV Poll and our Predictions for Western India

NDTV does a decent job of polling samples of electorate and coming up with predictions. Our methods are more rigorous (described before), hence more accurate. Here are our predictions for western India:

In the above analysis, for Maharashtra, Cong numbers include Congress and NCP and BJP numbers include BJP and Shiv Sena.

Impact Analysis: Navin Jindal shoe throwing

There was a new incident of shoe throwing and the target was sitting MP from Kurukshetra, Navin Jindal. See below for the video. We did an impacts analysis of this event and here are our predictions on how it will affect the Lok Sabha elections:

• This is the second event this week. The first target was Home Minister P. Chidambaram and the shoe thrower was a journalist- Jarnail Singh. Scroll down below to see video.
• Both events were in protest of policies of the incumbents.
• Both events were instigated by common men with no political power.
• Both created a flutter in the media. The first incident was condoned very quickly by all and sundry from the ruling coalition.
• Nevertheless, the ruling coalition reacted quickly by asking the contestants Jagdish Tytler and Sajjan Kumar to withdraw their nominations.
• This is a powerful and relatively non-violent way to express one's protest against issues.
• Our predictive model tells us that at least 3 (2.57 to be precise) such incidents are very likely to occur (95% probability) within the next 11 days.
• All these events will target incumbent MPs. Chances of targeting members of ruling coalition (UPA) are 2/3, i.e. 2 out of 3 attacks will target someone from parties that make up the UPA . One incident has a 65% chance of targeting a communist party contestant. 27% chance from NDA.
• This event and the following events will reduce the chance of forming a UPA government at the center by 11.2%.
• If no such events occur till the elections date, then the chances of UPA government at the center has reduced by 4%.
• Overall, shoe throwing makes a very flashy and impactful statement against the ruling coalition and should not be ruled out as inconsequential.

Here is a video of the Navin Jindal incident:

Factors that will impact outcomes (National analysis)

The following factors will impact outcomes of the Indian Lok Sabha 2009 elections at the National Level:

• Terrorism and National Security: 23.5% (+/- 3%)
• Inflation and Economic Non-governance by UPA government: 31% (+/- 2.5%)
• Corruption, personal wealth of contestants and foreign bank accounts: 27% (+/- 3%)
• Communal isssues- Caste and religion: 17% (+/- 1%)
• Regional issues (MNS in MH, Ram Sene in KA, LTTE in TN, etc.): 1.5% (+/- 0.25%)

Please post what you think of our analytical models.

How we predict

What methods are used to predict the outcomes of the Indian Lok Sabha Elections 2009?

We are using several sophisticated analytical techniques to come up with the predictions. Some of these techniques have been used and proved to be very accurate in the US Presidential elections in 2004 and 2008. Here are the techniques we use:

• Triangulation from several polls- both online and offline
• Efficient markets hypothesis
• Trend Adjustments
• Regression
• Simulation methods (Monte Carlo simulations)
• Events Impact Analysis (e.g. impact of Varun's speech or shoe throwing at P Chidambaram)
• Projections from other polls including NDTV, IBN and even the astrologers

We use any and all data and use it in our simulation models, which we run over and over.

जय हिंद!!

Interesting Contests and Predictions

There are a lot of interesting contests all over the country for the Indian Lok Sabha elections this year. Here are some of the contests, some predictions and reasons for the win:

GANDHINAGAR seat

Major Contestants: LK Advani (BJP) - incumbent, Suresh Patel (Congress), Mallika Sarabhai (Independent)

Election issues: Pride of electing potential future PM of India, great development story of development poster boy Modi,

PREDICTION: LK Advani by a landslide. Both Patel and Sarabhai will lose deposit.
CHANCE of Advani win: 100%

PUNE seat:

Contestants: Suresh Kalmadi (Cong)- incumbent, Anil Shirole (BJP-SS), Arun Bhatia (Indp), DS Kulkarni (BSP), Ranjit Shirole (MNS)

Election Issues: Development of the city, Traffic Congestion, Power supply, Water supply, Pollution.

PREDICTION: Anil Shirole by a wafer thin margin. DSK will lose deposit.
CHANCES of win: Anil Shirole (43%), Suresh Kalmadi (37%), Bhatia (6%), DS Kulkarni (0%)

PREDICTED FACTORS contributing to the win: Infighting between Congress and NCP, Signals that Pawar may join Third Front after elections, Complete and utter non-performance of Kalmadi as MP for many years, Greater than normal voter turn-out in Pune.

More interesting contests to follow.

Meet the PM Candidates

Meet India's Prime Ministerial Candidates:

Manmohan Singh (MMS):
The incumbent candidate is part of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA). A man of high letters and a PhD from Cambridge University, UK. Never contested and won an election on his own merit. Got nominated to Rajya Sabha (India's Lord's House of the Parliament. Sober and intellectual. Clear bias for minorities. Subservient and sychophant to the Italian lady Sonia Gandhi.
Performance of his UPA government: 2 out of 5 stars.
PREDICTION: Chances of becoming PM again: 37%




LK Advani:
Leader of the Opposition in the current Lok Sabha. Leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Principled, disciplined and non-corrupt. Considered the second Iron Man of India (after the great Sardar Patel). Has a great appeal to the urban educated voters. Lesser so to the rural populace. Some consider him to be too old for the job. Others accuse him of being communal. Well positioned to become PM if his party can win at least 170 seats across India.
PREDICTION: Chances of becoming PM of India in 2009: 41%



Mayawati:
Leader of the backward classes and the Bahujan Samaj Party. Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh. Dynamic leader with great appeal among the backward classes. Decisive and bold. As of now, she has refused to create alliance with any major party.
PREDICTION: Chances of becoming PM of India in 2009: 3%
PREDICTION: Chances of becoming Deputy PM of India in 2009: 27% (if she allies with the NDA)
PREDICTION: Chances of becoming Deputy PM of India in 2009: 3% (if she allies with the UPA)




Narendra Modi:
Progressive Chief Minister of Gujarat. Transformed Gujarat into the most developed state in India. Works extremely hard for the people of Gujarat. Dynamic leader with great appeal and a role model for progress for all CMs of India. Carries baggage of the 2002 Hindu-Muslim riots where he was accused of communalism. Muslim leaders in his own state endorse him now, but pseudo-seculars still hold him in contempt. Has signalled that he will continue to serve his state after the elections, but a leader of his stature will be pulled to the national level due to his tremendous appeal and the great developmental work he has done. Will be a great candidate for Home Minister as well as Finance Minister.
PREDICTION: Chances of becoming PM of India in 2009: 5%
PREDICTION: Chances of becoming Deputy PM of India in 2009: 38%
PREDICTION: Chances of becoming Home Minister or Finance Minister of India in 2009: 41%




The Jokers (The Wolf Pack): Laloo, Paswan, Mulayam, Amar Singh
These people have milked the poor and uneducated voters (Hindus as well as Muslims) by creating vote banks and keeping these massive vote banks uneducated. Each one of them is corrupt and selfish to the core. They will sell their mothers to anyone today to become PM of India.
PREDICTION: Chances of becoming PM of India for each one of them in 2009: <1%

Indian Lok Sabha Elections 09

Lok Sabha elections of 2009 are heating up and fast.

Overall, these elections are turning out to be very interesting due to several interesting developments:

Varun Gandhi has jolted the system and changed the odds in his favor with one polarizing speech:




Modi has emerged as a powerful national leader.


Laloo, Paswan and Mulayam (the pack of wolves) have come together and are likely to leave the UPA and create a Third Front.


Maratha Strongman Sharad Pawar will do anything and join anyone to see if he can get a shot at the PM post.


Congress has lost face and had to withdraw two contestant goons (Jagdish Tytler and Sajjan Kumar) after the brave Sikh journalist Jarnail Singh threw a shoe at the Home Minister P Chidambaram: