Saturday, May 2, 2009

Who will form the next government in India? Which party will come to power?

Who will form the next government is the million dollar question. There are only 17 more days for the results of the polls to come out. After that, the horse trading will begin. Here are our predictions:
  • NDA will emerge as the single largest party.
  • BJP will not get a majority, so they will not be able to stake a claim to form the government.
  • NDA will, by itself, not be able to gain simple majority either.
  • Neither will the UPA.
  • Regional parties will play a big role in forming the next government.
  • The mandate will be clearly against the Congress party. The anti-incumbency factor will be the biggest determinant. Mandate against non-performance by Congress party will be clear.
  • Regional parties will ride the anti-incumbency wave and support the NDA.
  • Anti-Congress-DMK wave will sweep Tamil Nadu due to the way the LTTE issue has been handled. Jayalalitha will have crucial numbers to bring majority to the AIADMK party in Tamil Nadu.
  • BJP will sweep MP, Gujarat and Himachal.
  • BJP-SS will have unprecedented gains in Maharashtra. See earlier post in this blog.
  • BJP-SS will come to power in Maharashtra later in the year.
  • BJP will have unprecedented gains in Punjab, Rajasthan, Orissa and Delhi.
  • UP will produce a fractured mandate. SP will face major losses in UP from last elections. Amar Singh and Kalyan Singh will be shown the door unceremoniously. BJP and Ajit Singh's RLD will experience major gains.
  • Andhra Pradesh will also have a fractured mandate. Congress will have setbacks in AP.
  • The left will suffer setbacks in West Bengal and Kerala. Congress will make inroads in these states for the first time.
  • Bihar will face a huge anti-Laloo wave. JD(U) and BJP will experience major gains.
  • LK Advani will become PM of India.
  • Jayalalitha will become Deputy PM.

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