National Predictions

Our predictions, based on simulations, have yielded the following results. We will continue to run these simulations till election day:


The numbers our models came up with are very different than the NDTV poll numbers due to several factors:

• The alliances in many states are still evolving or will evolve after the elections
• Jaya from TN will align with the BJP sooner than later
• TDP and Chiru's party in AP together will create a small ruffle in AP, of which Chiru's PRP will gain 10 seats and TDP will gain only about 3 seats.
• In UP, the mess will continue and the third front will continue to gain steam. BSP is also in this third front bucket.
• Mayawati will play kingmaker this time. She will have a large contingent of seats.
• Despite having less seats in their kitty, NDA will be joined by Mayawati to keep out Congress out of power.
• LK Advani will be the next PM of India (42% chance).

We will continue to refine our simulation models as time goes, so watch this space.

Meet the PM Candidates

Meet India's Prime Ministerial Candidates:

Manmohan Singh (MMS):
The incumbent candidate is part of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA). A man of high letters and a PhD from Cambridge University, UK. Never contested and won an election on his own merit. Got nominated to Rajya Sabha (India's Lord's House of the Parliament. Sober and intellectual. Clear bias for minorities. Subservient and sychophant to the Italian lady Sonia Gandhi.
Performance of his UPA government: 2 out of 5 stars.
PREDICTION: Chances of becoming PM again: 37%




LK Advani:
Leader of the Opposition in the current Lok Sabha. Leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Principled, disciplined and non-corrupt. Considered the second Iron Man of India (after the great Sardar Patel). Has a great appeal to the urban educated voters. Lesser so to the rural populace. Some consider him to be too old for the job. Others accuse him of being communal. Well positioned to become PM if his party can win at least 170 seats across India.
PREDICTION: Chances of becoming PM of India in 2009: 41%



Mayawati:
Leader of the backward classes and the Bahujan Samaj Party. Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh. Dynamic leader with great appeal among the backward classes. Decisive and bold. As of now, she has refused to create alliance with any major party.
PREDICTION: Chances of becoming PM of India in 2009: 3%
PREDICTION: Chances of becoming Deputy PM of India in 2009: 27% (if she allies with the NDA)
PREDICTION: Chances of becoming Deputy PM of India in 2009: 3% (if she allies with the UPA)




Narendra Modi:
Progressive Chief Minister of Gujarat. Transformed Gujarat into the most developed state in India. Works extremely hard for the people of Gujarat. Dynamic leader with great appeal and a role model for progress for all CMs of India. Carries baggage of the 2002 Hindu-Muslim riots where he was accused of communalism. Muslim leaders in his own state endorse him now, but pseudo-seculars still hold him in contempt. Has signalled that he will continue to serve his state after the elections, but a leader of his stature will be pulled to the national level due to his tremendous appeal and the great developmental work he has done. Will be a great candidate for Home Minister as well as Finance Minister.
PREDICTION: Chances of becoming PM of India in 2009: 5%
PREDICTION: Chances of becoming Deputy PM of India in 2009: 38%
PREDICTION: Chances of becoming Home Minister or Finance Minister of India in 2009: 41%




The Jokers (The Wolf Pack): Laloo, Paswan, Mulayam, Amar Singh
These people have milked the poor and uneducated voters (Hindus as well as Muslims) by creating vote banks and keeping these massive vote banks uneducated. Each one of them is corrupt and selfish to the core. They will sell their mothers to anyone today to become PM of India.
PREDICTION: Chances of becoming PM of India for each one of them in 2009: <1%