National Predictions

Our predictions, based on simulations, have yielded the following results. We will continue to run these simulations till election day:


The numbers our models came up with are very different than the NDTV poll numbers due to several factors:

• The alliances in many states are still evolving or will evolve after the elections
• Jaya from TN will align with the BJP sooner than later
• TDP and Chiru's party in AP together will create a small ruffle in AP, of which Chiru's PRP will gain 10 seats and TDP will gain only about 3 seats.
• In UP, the mess will continue and the third front will continue to gain steam. BSP is also in this third front bucket.
• Mayawati will play kingmaker this time. She will have a large contingent of seats.
• Despite having less seats in their kitty, NDA will be joined by Mayawati to keep out Congress out of power.
• LK Advani will be the next PM of India (42% chance).

We will continue to refine our simulation models as time goes, so watch this space.