How we predict

What methods are used to predict the outcomes of the Indian Lok Sabha Elections 2009?

We are using several sophisticated analytical techniques to come up with the predictions. Some of these techniques have been used and proved to be very accurate in the US Presidential elections in 2004 and 2008. Here are the techniques we use:

• Triangulation from several polls- both online and offline
• Efficient markets hypothesis
• Trend Adjustments
• Regression
• Simulation methods (Monte Carlo simulations)
• Events Impact Analysis (e.g. impact of Varun's speech or shoe throwing at P Chidambaram)
• Projections from other polls including NDTV, IBN and even the astrologers

We use any and all data and use it in our simulation models, which we run over and over.

जय हिंद!!