Impact Analysis: Navin Jindal shoe throwing

There was a new incident of shoe throwing and the target was sitting MP from Kurukshetra, Navin Jindal. See below for the video. We did an impacts analysis of this event and here are our predictions on how it will affect the Lok Sabha elections:

• This is the second event this week. The first target was Home Minister P. Chidambaram and the shoe thrower was a journalist- Jarnail Singh. Scroll down below to see video.
• Both events were in protest of policies of the incumbents.
• Both events were instigated by common men with no political power.
• Both created a flutter in the media. The first incident was condoned very quickly by all and sundry from the ruling coalition.
• Nevertheless, the ruling coalition reacted quickly by asking the contestants Jagdish Tytler and Sajjan Kumar to withdraw their nominations.
• This is a powerful and relatively non-violent way to express one's protest against issues.
• Our predictive model tells us that at least 3 (2.57 to be precise) such incidents are very likely to occur (95% probability) within the next 11 days.
• All these events will target incumbent MPs. Chances of targeting members of ruling coalition (UPA) are 2/3, i.e. 2 out of 3 attacks will target someone from parties that make up the UPA . One incident has a 65% chance of targeting a communist party contestant. 27% chance from NDA.
• This event and the following events will reduce the chance of forming a UPA government at the center by 11.2%.
• If no such events occur till the elections date, then the chances of UPA government at the center has reduced by 4%.
• Overall, shoe throwing makes a very flashy and impactful statement against the ruling coalition and should not be ruled out as inconsequential.

Here is a video of the Navin Jindal incident: