National Predictions

Our predictions, based on simulations, have yielded the following results. We will continue to run these simulations till election day:


The numbers our models came up with are very different than the NDTV poll numbers due to several factors:

• The alliances in many states are still evolving or will evolve after the elections
• Jaya from TN will align with the BJP sooner than later
• TDP and Chiru's party in AP together will create a small ruffle in AP, of which Chiru's PRP will gain 10 seats and TDP will gain only about 3 seats.
• In UP, the mess will continue and the third front will continue to gain steam. BSP is also in this third front bucket.
• Mayawati will play kingmaker this time. She will have a large contingent of seats.
• Despite having less seats in their kitty, NDA will be joined by Mayawati to keep out Congress out of power.
• LK Advani will be the next PM of India (42% chance).

We will continue to refine our simulation models as time goes, so watch this space.

Interesting Contests and Predictions

There are a lot of interesting contests all over the country for the Indian Lok Sabha elections this year. Here are some of the contests, some predictions and reasons for the win:

GANDHINAGAR seat

Major Contestants: LK Advani (BJP) - incumbent, Suresh Patel (Congress), Mallika Sarabhai (Independent)

Election issues: Pride of electing potential future PM of India, great development story of development poster boy Modi,

PREDICTION: LK Advani by a landslide. Both Patel and Sarabhai will lose deposit.
CHANCE of Advani win: 100%

PUNE seat:

Contestants: Suresh Kalmadi (Cong)- incumbent, Anil Shirole (BJP-SS), Arun Bhatia (Indp), DS Kulkarni (BSP), Ranjit Shirole (MNS)

Election Issues: Development of the city, Traffic Congestion, Power supply, Water supply, Pollution.

PREDICTION: Anil Shirole by a wafer thin margin. DSK will lose deposit.
CHANCES of win: Anil Shirole (43%), Suresh Kalmadi (37%), Bhatia (6%), DS Kulkarni (0%)

PREDICTED FACTORS contributing to the win: Infighting between Congress and NCP, Signals that Pawar may join Third Front after elections, Complete and utter non-performance of Kalmadi as MP for many years, Greater than normal voter turn-out in Pune.

More interesting contests to follow.

Indian Lok Sabha Elections 09

Lok Sabha elections of 2009 are heating up and fast.

Overall, these elections are turning out to be very interesting due to several interesting developments:

Varun Gandhi has jolted the system and changed the odds in his favor with one polarizing speech:




Modi has emerged as a powerful national leader.


Laloo, Paswan and Mulayam (the pack of wolves) have come together and are likely to leave the UPA and create a Third Front.


Maratha Strongman Sharad Pawar will do anything and join anyone to see if he can get a shot at the PM post.


Congress has lost face and had to withdraw two contestant goons (Jagdish Tytler and Sajjan Kumar) after the brave Sikh journalist Jarnail Singh threw a shoe at the Home Minister P Chidambaram: